Tensions are mounting along the Syria-Iraq border. The deployment of HTS forces against the Iran-backed PMF in Iraq has become a subject of public debate, while the Syrian army has been placed on military alert. The Syrian Ministry of Defense deployed troops along the Syria-Iraq border and ordered its forces to go on “C” alert. Amid the growing tensions along the border, concerns are mounting over the risk of a possible armed confrontation. 

 

Journalist Özgür Avzem, drawing attention to the military buildup on both sides of the border, said: “The mutual deployment of forces by the PMF and the Syrian army along the Iraq border has increased tensions in the region. It is necessary to pay attention to what lies behind this military buildup. We need to ask who is driving this mobilization, who is behind the positioning of these forces against each other and keeping them on alert, and what is ultimately intended.”

 

THE BACKGROUND OF THE MILITARY BUILDUP ON THE BORDER

 

Avzem said Saudi Arabia played a more active role than Turkey in the HTS attacks on North and East Syria in January. He added: “Saudi Arabia’s main objective is a unitary, centralized and sectarian Syria. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, having local democratic governance in Syria was seen as a threat. For this reason, it provided al-Shara with financial and material support to prevent the will of the Kurds from being recognized. This partnership continues to serve their various interests. They want to govern Syria together, which is why al-Shara continues to receive financial support.”

 

‘SAUDI ARABIA HAS PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT’

 

Avzem said the late US Senator Lindsey Graham had recognized the threat posed by Saudi Arabia and had warned King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud about it. Avzem continued: “It was Saudi Arabia that provided the military and economic backing that paved the way for HTS attacks against Kurds. There had been repeated talks with Saudi Arabia. The same Saudi Arabia is now providing significant support for the attacks against the PMF in Iraq. In particular, with the backing of the US, it wants to take part directly in military operations while also making economic investments to secure a role for itself in the regional balance of power.  For example, there is a military buildup by both the PMF and the Syrian army along the Syria-Iraq border. A Shia-Sunni conflict could particularly emerge there. Saudi Arabia is once again providing significant support behind this buildup.”

 

Avzem said: “Saudi Arabia wants to establish a presence in Syria primarily through institutional financing rather than a military presence. Rather than simply countering Iranian influence, Saudi Arabia’s aim is to restore Arab states’ say in Syria. It wants to establish firm control over Damascus, make its influence there more permanent, and thereby prevent a possible return of Iran. It has mobilized itself to achieve this. Saudi Arabia wants to build a system in Syria based on nationalist, moderate Islam.”

 

‘TURKEY WANTS TO REMAIN PART OF THE EQUATION’

 

Highlighting Turkey’s influence in Syria, Avzem said: “At this point, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to build influence in the region through economic means are limiting Turkey’s role in the Syrian equation to its military power alone. I would say this is upsetting the balance. Even Qatar, one of Turkey’s closest strategic allies, is now moving in line with Saudi Arabia. This rapprochement has made Turkey’s position in the Syrian equation considerably more complicated. Saudi Arabia currently has the political, diplomatic and military leverage to represent the Arab states as a whole. For this reason, Saudi Arabia’s political and diplomatic vision at the regional level may become even more evident in the days ahead.”

 

Stating that Turkey wants to remain part of the current equation, Avzem said: “Although Turkey is no longer in the same position as before, it wants to maintain its place in the equation. As Arab states are rapidly becoming involved amid efforts to gain influence in the Middle East, particularly at a time when Syria is being drawn into new regional conflicts, Turkey’s sharing of its economic and political engagements with Syria is contributing to the deepening of both political and social problems in the country. We can see that when the regional dynamics change, there are also changes in the political and military dimensions and dynamics.”

 

‘SHARA’S TERM COULD END AT ANY MOMENT’

 

Noting that the Syrian interim government is trying to preserve its position amid these changes, Avzem said: “The Syrian interim government, led by Colani, is also trying to maintain its interim status. al-Shara, who is responsible for a jihadist organization that has carried out massacres and genocidal acts, is seeking to gain the trust of international powers and consolidate his legitimacy through concessions to them. These efforts are aimed at maintaining his own grip on power. But there is also another reality: the need of global powers for Shara could end at any moment. Shara’s tenure could come to an end at any time. That is why we say this when we look at the current situation in Syria, because the regional context is subject to profound change. Ultimately, we need to anticipate a process that requires preparedness on all fronts.”

 

‘SDF WILL PRESERVE THE FUTURE OF SYRIA AND THE ROJAVA REVOLUTION’

 

Speaking about the fate of Kurdish forces integrated into the Syrian interim government in the event of a confrontation between HTS and PMF, Avzem said: “The SDF has been integrated into the Syrian army. Thousands of SDF fighters have been organized into four divisions within the Syrian Ministry of Defence. In other words, this military integration has gone beyond being merely symbolic and has become an institutionalized structure. The SDF will take its place within the state army in line with democratic practices while preserving its own model of governance. “For this reason, the model of democratic institutional organization will not only provide a basis for defending against attacks by any force that may emerge along the borders, but also for institutionalizing its own democratic functioning within the state. From now on, the security of Syria and Rojava will be ensured under the banner of the Syrian army. Together, they will respond to security threats that may emerge along the border in a self-defence capacity.”

 

MA / Ömer Akın