PKK Leader Abdullah Ocalan, who was brought to Turkey on February 15, 1999 with the conspiracy of international forces, has been held in absolute isolation in Imrali Type F High Security Prison for 25 years. There has been no news from Ocalan since his phone call with his brother Mehmet Ocalan on March 25, 2021. The last date Ocalan met with his lawyers was 7 August 2019.

 

The solution process, which started with the statement "The National Intelligence Organization is visiting Abdullah Ocalan to find a solution to the Kurdish issue" made by Tayyip Erdogan on December 28, 2012, when he was prime minister, ended with the speech he made as the President on the plane returning from Ukraine on March 22, 2015. The isolation imposed on Abdullah Ocalan worsened with the end of the solution process.

 

The AKP government's insistence on war and isolation brought many issues for the people of Turkey. As the economic crisis deepened in Turkey, social decay also increased its impact. We have compiled data on how the isolation has dragged Turkey into an abyss. 

 

SOCIAL DECAY

 

As the peace environment was put in the "refrigerator", as AKP Chair and President Erdogan put it, political parties began to make statements that fueled war and praised sexist, discriminatory and monism. While military deployments and attacks were carried out, politicians developed a language of hostility towards Kurds to design society. With each statement made, society became more polarized. This situation paved the way for social decay in society, and child abuse, worker deaths, individual armament and femicide increased rapidly. According to the data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) during the period when the negotiations were ongoing; While 17 thousand 948 files were opened for sexual abuse of children in 2013, this number will be 40 thousand 713 in 2023.

 

According to Umut Foundation data; While there were 338 thousand 22 carrying and 319 thousand 37 possession gun licenses in Turkey in 2012, in 2023 there will be approximately 4 million licensed and 32 million unlicensed guns.

 

According to the data of the Workers' Health and Safety Council (ISIG), while 1,235 workers lost their lives in occupational homicides in 2013, 1,932 workers lost their lives in 2023, and at least 425 workers died in the first 3 months of 2024.

 

Another data showing the social decay was the massacres of women. According to the data of the We Will Stop Femicide Platform (KCDP), while 237 women were murdered in 2013, and 315 femicide and 248 suspicious woman deaths in 2023. According to KCDP data, in the first 3 months of 2024, 92 femicide and 59 suspicious woman deaths were recorded.

 

Another consequence of the isolation of Abdullah Ocalan and the lack of solution to the Kurdish issue is the economy. During the process of negotiations, we compiled the budget allocated to the Ministry of National Defense for inflation, budget deficit, dollar exchange rate and war expenditures.

 

EXCHANGE

 

Since the last contact with PKK Leader Abdullah Ocalan was made on March 25, 2021, dollar exchange rate statistics are based on the March 25 equivalent of the years in question. Accordingly, while the dollar exchange rate was 1.8 Liras on March 25, 2013, when negotiations continued, it was 32.07 Liras on March 25, 2024, when the isolation continued.

 

INFLATION

 

Another effect of the war was inflation. Product prices in Turkey change hourly. According to the 2013 results of the Income and Living Conditions Survey conducted by TUIK, in which Income Distribution Statistics are calculated, the share of those with the highest income from the total income was 46.6 percent, while this rate became 49.8 percent in 2023. Again, according to TUIK data, while inflation was 7.49 percent in 2013, it was 64.77 percent in 2023 and 15.06 percent in the first 3 months of 2024.

 

Stating that TUIK's data does not reflect the truth, academics announced the establishment of the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), which started as a doctoral thesis in 2016, in mid-2019 and published the first inflation data in September 2020. ENAG announced inflation data as 82.81 percent for 2021, 137.55 percent for 2022 and 127 percent for 2023.

 

 

WAR EXPENDITURES

 

As the AKP government, insisting on the Kurdish issue, embraced the war, the budget allocated to the war gradually increased. The AKP government acquired hundreds of thousands of war inventories, especially Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs). Even the budget allocated only to the Ministry of National Defense increased from 20.3 billion Liras to 440 billion 496 million 960 thousand Liras.

 

BUDGET DEFICIT

 

Another reflection of the budget allocated to the war was the budget deficit. The budget deficit gradually increased every year that the AKP government insisted on war. So much so that, while the budget deficit was 33 billion 951 million in 2013, when the negotiations started, it was 1.37 trillion in 2023. In the 2024-2026 Medium Term Program (MTP) prepared by the Presidency's Strategy and Budget Directorate, a budget deficit of 2 trillion 651 billion 900 million TL was predicted for 2024.

 

ISOLATION DISTURBED THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE SOCIETY

 

With the beginning of the isolation, politicians' war rhetoric and the further establishment of the monist mentality also affected the mental health of the society, such that this situation was also reflected in the controversial TUIK data. According to the Life Satisfaction Survey data published by TUIK, while the rate of those who declared that they were happy was 59 percent in 2013, it became 54.6 percent in 2021, when the isolation started, and 49.7 percent in 2022, when the isolation deepened.

 

Naturally, external migration began in Turkey, where unhappiness was evident and the economic crisis deepened. According to the International Migration Statistics data first published by TUIK in 2016, while there were 177 thousand 993 people in 2016, according to the latest published data for 2022, 466 thousand 914 people migrated.

 

MA / Berivan Kutlu