WAN – Iran’s capital, Tehran, is grappling with a severe water shortage and ground subsidence crisis, prompting government discussions about relocating the capital. However, Prof. Dr. Nasser Karami, an Iranian geographer and climate scientist, argues that the root of the crisis lies in the regime’s policies and lack of governance capacity.

 

Tehran, home to nearly nine million people, depends heavily on distant water basins located 150–200 kilometers away. Karami explained that years of overconsumption and environmental neglect have exhausted these sources: “This is not a sudden crisis like a complete water cut. The city still relies on water from the Alborz Mountains, which act like a sponge. But pressure on these sources has sharply increased, making water supply more difficult and expensive.”

 

As underground water levels drop, the ground beneath Tehran has begun to sink, especially in the southwestern districts. Karami noted that the first signs of this appeared in the 1990s, yet the authorities failed to take preventive measures. “Overexploitation of groundwater and the intensifying pressure on ecosystems have made land subsidence harder and costlier to manage,” he said.

 

‘RELOCATING THE CAPITAL IS NOT A REAL SOLUTION’

 

Karami warned that moving the capital would not solve the problem and might create new ones: “Transferring even one million people could have a visible impact on the city’s structure, but major problems would remain. A 7 or 8 million–person city would still face environmental and infrastructural issues. Relocation is not a definitive or effective solution.”

 

He criticized the government for failing to prioritize Tehran’s sustainability, saying that long-term planning had been replaced by short-term control: “The regime’s goal was not comprehensive management but maintaining control. None of the policies on air pollution, water resources, or seismic safety were properly implemented. Even legally mandated measures were ignored.”

 

EARTHQUAKE RISKS AND URBAN VULNERABILITY

 

Tehran’s reliance on groundwater extraction over the past decades has worsened its vulnerability to earthquakes. “Lowering groundwater levels increases the risk of ground collapse. In a city already sitting on seismic fault lines, this could multiply earthquake damage. Buildings become weaker, and a multidimensional urban crisis could unfold,” Karami warned.

 

‘THE REGIME IS HIDING ITS RESPONSIBILITY’

 

Karami described the relocation debate as a distraction tactic: “There is no serious project or technical study on this. Such statements aim to conceal structural deficiencies. The regime uses diversionary proposals to hide its own responsibility.”

 

Proposals to move the capital toward the Oman Sea coast are unrealistic, he added: “Those regions are hundreds of kilometers from major ports and unsuitable for settlement. Redirecting part of the population to smaller development centers like the Silakhor Plain, which has geographic advantages and proximity to population hubs, would make more sense.”

 

SUSTAINABLE PLANNING AND GLOBAL EXAMPLES

 

Karami said relocating the capital cannot be separated from water sustainability: “Only a few areas in Iran can support a new metropolis with sustainable water sources. Renewable energy and desalination could make coastal development viable, but that requires major investments and long-term planning.”

 

Drawing comparisons with other capitals, he noted: “Cities like Delhi, Beijing, and Kuala Lumpur faced similar challenges but were restructured through strategic management and long-term planning. Iran, however, lacks such consistency.”

 

‘A REGIME WITHOUT CAPACITY OR LEGITIMACY’

 

Karami concluded that Iran’s leadership lacks the will and capacity to implement real solutions: “I don’t take these statements seriously. The Islamic Republic has no coherent environmental or spatial strategy. It has lost legitimacy and survives through repression.”

 

He emphasized that the system’s unsustainable water, land, and agricultural policies are driven by political control rather than sound governance: “Ultimately, the regime’s economic and environmental policies have become unstable and unreliable.”

 

MA / Zeynep Durgut